| From: www.HousingMatrix.com Volume 14, Issue 05 | For the week of February 15, 2010 |
| Fair Weather Flags Fly For Housing |
| New Homes This good news is beginning to resound for homebuilders. D.R. Horton and Beazer both report they are seeing higher numbers of orders together with a lower contract cancellation rate. | |
| Horton reports that last quarter's orders for new homes were 45 percent above year-ago levels, and a cancellation rate drop from 38 percent to 26 percent. | |
| Existing Home Values According to the national PMI risk index, the movement of housing value movement "overall risk has decreased" in the movement of housing value movements in the 384 metro markets they survey. | |
| The survey examines household income, economic growth, local employment, demographic changes to predict where home values are heading. | |
| Some Economists credit the leveling of home prices to economic policies including the first-time homebuyer's credit, government purchases of MBS and the Fed holding down interest rates. There is good reason to be cautious with the passing of these policies and the release of the “shadow” inventory of homes onto the market. | |
| At no surprise, the "sand states" of Arizona, California, Florida and Arizona were pegged at an "elevated risk." | |
| A contra indicator has come from Zillow, whose index of home owner negative equity found that the national average rate dropped to 21.4 percent in Q409. This is still an improvement from 23 percent in Q209. | |
| Home Equity Rising The Federal Reserve's quarterly "flow of funds" report found that home equity is increasing for the first time in three years. | |
| In the first three quarters of last year home equity increased by $1 trillion, by a combination of principal paydowns on mortgages and rising home values. |
Key Economic Reports Released This Week
| RELEASE DATE | ECONOMIC INDICATORS | RELEASED BY | CONSENSUS | Wt. | INFLUENCE ON INTEREST RATES |
| Tue 02/16 8:30 am et | Empire State Mfg. Survey for February '10 | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | 16.0% | ** |  If strong demand If weak demand |
| Tue 02/16 1:00 pm et | NAHB Housing Index for February '10 | National Association of Home Builders | 15 | ** | Undetermined |
| Tue 02/16 1:00 pm et | Weekly Bill Auction | Dept. of the Treasury | N/A | ** | If strong demand If weak demand |
| Wed 02/17 7:00 am et | MBA Mtg Apps Survey for week ending 02/12 | Mortgage Bankers Association of America | N/A | * | Undetermined |
| Wed 02/17 8:30 am et | Housing Starts / Permits for January '10 | Bureau of the Census Dept. of Commerce | 575k | *** | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Wed 02/17 8:30 am et | Import & Export Prices for January '10 | Bur. of Labor Statistics Department of Labor | ImPrice 0.9% | * | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Wed 02/17 9:15 am et | Industrial Prod / Capacity for January '10 | Federal Reserve Board | Ip 0.5% cu 72.3% | *** | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Wed 02/17 2:00 pm et | FOMC Meetings for 01/26-27 meeting | Fed Open Market Committee | N/A | **** | Determines Policy |
| Wed 02/17 2:00 pm et | Treasury Budget for January '10 | Dept. of the Treasury | -$46.0B | * | Undetermined |
| Thu 02/18 8:30 am et | Jobless Claims for week ending 02/13 | Bur. of Labor Statistics Department of Labor | 448k | * | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Thu 02/18 8:30 am et | Producer Price Index for January '10 | Bur. of Labor Statistics Department of Labor | 0.8% core 0.2% | *** | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Thu 02/18 10:00 am et | Leading Econo Indicators for January '10 | Bur. of Econ. Analysis Dept. of Commerce | 0.4% | *** | If above consensus If below consensus |
| Thu 02/18 10:00 am et | Philadelphia Fed Survey for February '10 | Federal Reserve Board | 16.8% | ** | Undetermined |
| Fri 02/19 8:30 am et | Consumer Price Index for January '10 | Bur. of Labor Statistics Department of Labor | 0.4% core 0.2% | *** | If above consensus If below consensus |
| * Low Importance | ** Moderate Importance | *** Important | **** Very Important |
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